2027: Can AbdulRazaq Survive the Saraki-Turaki Tsunami?

By Abdulyekeen, Mohd Bashir

The AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq government is visibly rattled and glaringly disturbed. There are few things more unsettling for him and his inner circle than the spectre of a political alliance between former Senate President, Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki, and the serving Senator representing Kwara Central, Mallam Saliu Mustapha, the Turaki of Ilorin, two towering figures in Kwara politics.

That fear was once again put on public display last Saturday when Ilorin residents woke up to see a series of posters dotting strategic corners of the state capital, with a heavy presence in Adewole ward, where the AbdulRazaks hail from.

This isn’t the first time a mere image of the two leaders has sparked panic in Government House. Just months ago, a video of Dr. Saraki and Sen. Saliu Mustapha exchanging pleasantries at the wedding ceremony of the children of Grand Mufti, Sheikh Faruq Onikijipa in Lagos sent the entire APC structure in Kwara Central into overdrive. The footage caused such a stir that insiders say it nearly gave the governor hypertension, as his foot soldiers scrambled to downplay its implications.

So why exactly does the thought of a Saraki–Turaki alliance inspire this much fear? The answer is not far-fetched – it would spell the end of AbdulRahman’s tenuous and reinous grip on Kwara politics. It would shake the foundation of AbdulRazaq’s already fragile hold on power and likely sweep away what remains of his increasingly isolated political structure.

Saraki, regardless of shifting political tides, remains the most formidable political force in Kwara today, his grassroots network, legacy of mobilisation, and loyal base remain intact. On the other hand, Mustapha represents a new wave – youthful, urbane, well-liked across divides, and fast earning credibility even among the traditional elitist clusters. If Saraki brings legacy and structure, Mustapha brings freshness and mass appeal. Together, they could form an unbeatable coalition.

This may explain why every photograph, video clip, or whisper involving the two leaders causes nervous tremors within the ruling camp. Their paranoia is increasingly public, and costly.

At the last local government elections, the PDP under Saraki’s guidance swept the polls clean. The results were overturned under highly contentious circumstances, but the verdict in the hearts of many Kwarans remains unchanged, even till today. Let nobody make any mistake about it, the Saraki political machine is far from dead. In fact, it’s rejuvenating. And with a Mustapha partnership, the result is a political tsunami no incumbent can survive, not even a lame-duck, pretentious one like AbdulRazak’s.

If you ask me, I would tell you that the only individuals who should be fervently praying against a Saraki–Turaki alliance are Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, his immediate family, and whatever is left of his ragtag hungry army of supporters. Unfortunately for them, their inflated sense of control will not allow them to heed the warnings, or the signs. As the Yoruba proverb goes, “A dog destined to get lost does not hear the whistle of the hunter.”

Frankly, no pity should be spared for the governor. For him, all it takes is a backpack and he’s off the radar. The real victims will be his ragtag supporters, those who have bought into his illusion of invincibility, who will be left to face the humiliation of an inevitable political collapse, because the moment Saraki and Turaki eventually shake hands, not just for the cameras, but for Kwara’s future, it’s Otilor for the Sardauna be that!

Abdulyekeen, Mohd Bashir, a Kwara born political analyst writes from Kenneth Dike Library (KDL), University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.